Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 20 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

20 Feb 2022 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (22 Feb 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 06:00 - 23 Feb 2022 06:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	194	20.2 million	4.9 million	Madagascar
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	213	19.3 million	3.2 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	460000 people	-16.9, 57.1
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-17.2, 55.9
9	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	110000 people	-17.5, 54.5
9	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	4.5 million people	-18.1, 53.1
9	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 4	213	120000 people	14.1 million people	-19, 51.5
9	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	204	3.2 million people	19 million people	-19.9, 49.8
9	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	10.9 million people	-22.4, 46.3	Madagascar
9	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.3 million people	-25.5, 42.9
9	25 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-29, 40.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (165 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 20 Feb 2022 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.8
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.8
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Anja-Belitsaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Besasavy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 03:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 10:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Behazomby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Belefotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Besamata	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Efoetsy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Androka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Ankiririsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankilimivony	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Feb 2022 21:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 02:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 05:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.